{"id":2903,"date":"2021-10-21T07:09:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-21T07:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/?p=2903"},"modified":"2021-10-21T16:05:05","modified_gmt":"2021-10-21T16:05:05","slug":"taper-tantrum-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/taper-tantrum-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Taper-Tantrum of 2021! Will the Stock Market Crash?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-662d02fa6eb3f\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\" style='display:none' id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-662d02fa6eb3f\"  aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/taper-tantrum-2021\/#Introduction\" title=\"Introduction:\">Introduction:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/taper-tantrum-2021\/#The_Great_recession_QE\" title=\"The Great recession &amp; QE!\">The Great recession &amp; QE!<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/taper-tantrum-2021\/#What_happened_next\" title=\"What happened next?\">What happened next?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/taper-tantrum-2021\/#The_current_situation\" title=\"The current situation:\">The current situation:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/taper-tantrum-2021\/#Watch_YouTube_video_for_more_information\" title=\"Watch YouTube video for more information:\">Watch YouTube video for more information:<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/taper-tantrum-2021\/#Also_read\" title=\"Also read:\">Also read:<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Introduction\"><\/span><strong>Introduction<\/strong>:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Here, I&#8217;m gonna explain a topic that&#8217;s very relevant to the current situation. Something that has the capability to bring the market to its knees! Yup, I&#8217;m talking about &#8220;Taper-Tantrum&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Will we have <strong>Taper-Tantrum 2.0?<\/strong> and if we do, what&#8217;ll be the impact on the Indian Stock Market?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/open-account?c=PR4768\" style=\"border-radius:50px;background-color:#e4fa00;color:#0f0027\" rel=\"nofollow\"><strong>Open Zerodha Account Now!<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Great_recession_QE\"><\/span><strong>The Great recession &amp; QE!<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To overcome the 2008 &#8220;Great recession&#8221;, the central bank of the US, i.e., the Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, <strong>executed a policy known as quantitative easing (QE), which involves large purchases of bonds and other securities. In theory, this increases liquidity in the system and helps maintain stability, and promotes economic growth.<\/strong> Stabilizing the financial sector and encouraging lending to allow consumers to spend and businesses to invest.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Fed began purchasing its own Treasury bonds, it did so for over 3 to 4 years. And, by 2013,&nbsp;the economy had, in some ways, started to pick up. It was then when the Fed announced the&nbsp;future tapering of its policy of quantitative easing. Meaning, <strong>the Fed will not provide easy money to keep the economy going, rather, they will start pulling out the money from the economy, thus raising the interest rates.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed announced that it would be reducing the pace of its purchases of Treasury bonds, and reducing the amount of money it was feeding into the economy. The ensuing rise in bond yields in reaction to the announcement was referred to as a taper tantrum in the financial world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_happened_next\"><\/span><strong>What happened next?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Reducing the rate at which the Fed purchases assets represented a significant negative shock to market expectations since <strong>the Fed had grown to become one of the largest buyers in the world.<\/strong> As with any decline in demand, bond prices would fall in response to fewer Fed purchases. Bond investors immediately sold bonds in response to the threat of future declines in bond prices, reducing the price of bonds. Of course,<strong> declining bond prices always result in higher rates, and as a result, yields on US Treasuries have increased significantly.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And, market veterans predicted that since bonds fell, the stock market would also follow the same suit and we&#8217;d have a massive crash! At some point, we did have a correction. But, as always, the market recovered and, by the midst of 2013, we were back and booming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 2008, <strong>the fed&#8217;s balance sheet to date has ballooned up to become a huge worth of over 7 trillion in holding<\/strong> (treasury bonds contributing to over 5 trillion of the worth). And, at some point in time, they will and should consider de-sizing the created issue. (picture for reference)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fed-Balance-sheet-1024x689.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2904\" width=\"1182\" height=\"795\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fed-Balance-sheet-1024x689.png 1024w, https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fed-Balance-sheet-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fed-Balance-sheet-768x517.png 768w, https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fed-Balance-sheet.png 1317w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1182px) 100vw, 1182px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/open-account?c=PR4768\" style=\"border-radius:50px;background-color:#e4fa00;color:#0f0027\" rel=\"nofollow\"><strong>Open Zerodha Account Now!<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_current_situation\"><\/span><strong>The current situation<\/strong>:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve has been preparing the markets for the onset of its first policy tightening move since the beginning of the pandemic, and investors have begun bracing for the change. That means the Fed will start reducing the amount of bonds it buys, which then means that the money supply will be reduced going forward. It is said that the 2021 &#8220;Taper-Tantrum&#8221; will begin by the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although this time,<strong> we might not see a much bigger crash as it is said in the news media. But, a correction is certain to happen. And, do not make your investment decisions based on these economic factors.<\/strong> It is wise to know their importance on our economy and wealth but, they shouldn&#8217;t guide your investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is advised to keep your systematic investment plan (SIP) going. I would like to say it this way; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><strong>East go dust! or West go bust! It&#8217;ll not stop my nation&#8217;s progress. So, Invest!<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Watch_YouTube_video_for_more_information\"><\/span><strong>Watch YouTube video for more information<\/strong>:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"ast-oembed-container \" style=\"height: 100%;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Taper tantrum of 2021! Will Market Crash?\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Dcykrrtq_Ik?start=9&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/open-account?c=PR4768\" style=\"border-radius:50px;background-color:#e4fa00;color:#0f0027\" rel=\"nofollow\"><strong>Open Zerodha Account Now!<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Disclaimer: <\/strong><\/strong>All the information on this website is published in good faith and for general information purpose only. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Also_read\"><\/span><strong>Also read:<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/best-investment-plans-india-middle-class\/\">Best Investment Plans in India for Middle Class<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/how-to-invest-in-stock-market-a-beginners-guide-to-investing\/\">How to Start Investing? A Beginners Guide to Investing<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/how-to-construct-a-profitable-investment-portfolio\/\">How To Construct a Profitable Investment Portfolio?<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/investing-in-your-20s\/\">Investing tips in your 20s<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/investing-in-your-30s\/\">Investing tips in your 30s<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/portfolio-allocation-asset-correlation-importance\/\">Portfolio Allocation, Asset Correlation &amp; its importance!<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/best-warren-buffett-quotes\/\">Best Warren Buffett Quotes<\/a><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction: Here, I&#8217;m gonna explain a topic that&#8217;s very relevant to the current situation. Something that has the capability to bring the market to its knees! Yup, I&#8217;m talking about &#8220;Taper-Tantrum&#8221; Will we have Taper-Tantrum 2.0? and if we do, what&#8217;ll be the impact on the Indian Stock Market? The Great recession &amp; QE! To [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<div class='heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_vertical_sharing heateor_sss_bottom_sharing' style='width:44px;right: -10px;top: 100px;background-color: Dark Blue' data-heateor-sss-href='https:\/\/rakshithpai.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2903'><div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_ul\"><a aria-label=\"Facebook\" class=\"heateor_sss_facebook\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Frakshithpai.com%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F2903\" title=\"Facebook\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:32px!important;box-shadow:none;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle\"><span class=\"heateor_sss_svg\" style=\"background-color:#0765FE;width:40px;height:40px;margin:0;display:inline-block;opacity:1;float:left;font-size:32px;box-shadow:none;display:inline-block;font-size:16px;padding:0 4px;vertical-align:middle;background-repeat:repeat;overflow:hidden;padding:0;cursor:pointer;box-sizing:content-box\"><svg 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